Yes, we are
seeing “Climate
Change”… just like it has occurred continuously over the some 4.5 billion years
since the Earth was formed. There has been an ever changing climate on our
planet from warm to cool, or what is called "glacial advance and retreat". But, for now, let us just look at things over the last 425,000 years or so. Over that period, these "glacial advance
and retreat” cycles
seemed to recur about every 110,000 years from maximum cool to maximum warm.
It is generally agreed that among the major factors for the ever
changing of earth’s climate are: Astronomical Cycles (Sun activity, Earth’s
orbits around the Sun, angle of Earth’s tilt, etc.), Atmospheric Composition,
Plate Tectonics and Ocean Currents. The one of those four factors, the
Atmospheric Composition, is currently the one being blamed for what is now
called “Climate Change”. People particularly point to the “Greenhouse Gases” in
earth’s atmosphere causing Climate Change. "Greenhouse Gases”, as currently defined, are compounds in earth’s
atmosphere that cause retention of heat on our planet. The major “Greenhouse
Gases” in our atmosphere are: Water Vapor (H2O), Carbon Dioxide (CO2),
Methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxides (N2O, etc.), Ozone (O3)
and various categories of Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and Hydrofluorocarbons
(includes HCFCs and HFCs). Scientists say that the water vapor concentration, which
varies some with temperature, causes about 60% of the “Greenhouse Gas” effect
and is fairly constant and pretty much unchangeable by humans. According to
NOAA, during the last 3 cycles at the maximum cooling point of each glacial advance
peak, CO2 was at a low point, and at the end of each warm retreat
peak, CO2 was at a high point.
Also, during the last 3 cycles, the temperature at the peak of a retreat
period was 3-5°C (~5-9°F) hotter than current temperatures and at the peak of a
glacial period the temperature was 3-9°C (~5-16°F) cooler than current
temperatures. During the last 3 cycles, the sea level at the peak of a retreat period
was about at current levels and at the peak of a glacial period the sea level
was about 300-400 feet lower than current levels.
In the last 3 - 110,000 year glacial
cycles, the CO2 concentration peaked in the 280 to 320 parts per million (ppm) range.
Based on current models that assume CO2 levels
in our atmosphere increases to 750 ppm from the current levels of
about 350-400 ppm, some have
estimated,that the current warming retreat period
could be extended 50,000 years or more past the more normal 110,000 year cycle. Interestingly, from
NOAA data, the peak warm
temperatures of the last 3 - 110,000 year cycles were higher, even with lower CO2
concentrations. During those last 3 cycles, the maximum CH4 concentration and N2O concentration
were
about 60% and 20% lower respectively. Maybe the CO2 is not the biggest factor?
But, based on various reports, which Countries generate the most
global CO2 ?
1)
China
(Mainland) 25-30%
2)
United States of America
14-15%
3)
European Union
9%
4)
India 7%
5)
Russian Federation
5%
6)
Japan 4%
We could do a lot of things, very expensive things, to try to lower
CO2 , but even if we
completely
halted ALL greenhouse gas emissions tomorrow, in
the end, over the long term, it wouldn’t change a thing. We could go into
all sorts of greenhouse gas
emission sources, greenhouse gas emission reduction scenarios, etc. but again,
it most likely will not substantially change the temperature or sea level cycles that have happened
about every 110,000 years in the past. And, academics say the world will run out of liquid hydrocarbon fuel in less than 100
years, and coal certainly within 200 years. Why kill our economy now, when all fossil fuels will be gone soon. In geologic
and atmospheric time, 100 years in a 110,000 year cycle is just a 'blink of an eye'. Possibly these 110,000 year cycles are
more due to the Earth’s varying orbit around
the Sun or some inherent ‘resonance’ of the Earth’s temperature. Might the sea
levels be higher this time, might the temperatures go higher this time since CO2 is higher? Maybe. Based on many
models, by 2250, a "best guess" sea level rise of 8” to 80” may occur, but anything we do now won’t change
that. We could start right
now and plant millions of trees each year to try to make up for the loss of
rain forests and vegetation cut by man for farms, etc. and we could stop ALL
fossil fuel use immediately, but, it would take well over 1,000 years to change things,
if it did actually change things at all. It seems a bit arrogant to think we can change what has been occurring on Earth long
before humans populated our planet, and we will run out of fossil fuels in the next 100-200 years anyway .
So, what can be done? We should prepare for the same effects seen in
previous cycles, like further rise in sea levels, higher temperatures, etc., because those 3 most
previous 110,000 cycles occurred long before the agricultural and industrial
revolutions. The changes may come more
quickly this time, they may last longer this time, they may be a little worse
this time, but Earth’s equilibrium will eventually occur and a new glacial
cycle will begin.

Temperature change, Atmospheric carbon dioxide amount, and
Sea level as a function of time for the past 425,000 years. The horizontal axis shows time in thousands
of years before present. Figure from Hansen et al., "Target Atmospheric CO2". See sources for chapter 8. (For the original data, see sources
for chapter 3.)
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